Modelling
Models, for our purposes, are mathematical descriptions of the 'real world'. Becuase the marine ecosystem is so complex, models inevitably require us to reduce its complexity in order to be useful. Nonetheless, they are valuable tools that we require to improve our understanding of marine ecosystems and also to make predictions about future changes.
The partners in EMECO use a variety of different mathematical models but those we are most concerned with here are:
| 1. | Hydrodynamic models that deal with the movement of water (transport) and heat; |
| 2. | Biogeochemical models that deal with the lower trophic levels (usually bacteria and plankton) and the cycling of major elements (C, N, O, P); |
| 3. | Biogeochemical models dealing with higher trophic levels that represent the biological components of the system. |
Such models require large amounts of data that can be derived from field observations through monitoring or other means in order to set up the model and also to compare with model results in order to build confidence in the model.
Models can be used for a vatiety of purposes and in the example below, to investigate causes of observed change in ecosystems such as the variation in the amount of adult herring in the North Sea. How well the model reflects reality can be assessed by comparing model predictions with field observations (Figure).
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